Our research note published today details the outlook and expectations for Diurnal as we move into 2022.
Since Efmody’s European and UK marketing approvals in the summer, the share price has been lacklustre. Europe represents a $250m market opportunity for Efmody in Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (CAH) alone, so Diurnal’s enterprise value at £65m suggests that investors have reservations about Efmody’s European rollout.
Our note explains why we think that Efmody’s commercialisation should be successful. Efmody has proven benefits over existing treatments - it can more accurately mimic the body’s natural cortisol production and uses a lower dose of steroid. Diurnal has already established a European endocrinology sales platform with the launch of Alkindi in 2018. This infrastructure provides Efmody with access to the important endocrinology centres. The initial launch phase has been encouraging, with important markets including the UK and Germany providing encouraging feedback with respect to pricing. This news should have addressed concerns regarding Efmody’s lack of orphan drug status.
Diurnal is now well funded, allowing the company to properly roll out Efmody in Europe and advance its development in the US. Further out, we look forward to Efmody’s approval for the Adrenal Insufficiency opportunity, which is a $1.9bn market in Europe, and $1bn in the US
We look forward to hearing more about Efmody’s progress and plans at the Capital Markets Day on 2 February next year, together with further details on DITEST and the earlier stage pipeline. We have a DCF derived valuation of 241p per share for Diurnal Group.
See our research note here.
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Diurnal Group is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information contained in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.