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Basilea - A breadth of demand

Writer's picture: Brian WhiteBrian White

Although much of the focus for investors has been on the performance of Cresemba in established markets like the USA and Europe, along with more recent market introductions like Japan and China, the announcement today that Basilea has received milestone payments from sales of Cresemba in Canada and MENA, and from Zevtera sales in Europe through licensees is encouraging and epitomises the sheer breadth of the sales base, particularly for Cresemba.


It is important to remember that despite Cresemba's maturity and the expectation of a loss of exclusivity in the US and Europe from Q4 2027, Cresemba is available across 73 countries, suggesting some longevity to sales post-2027, particularly should major markets like China deliver on their undoubted potential. At the same time, with next-generation antifungal fosmanogepix now moving through late-stage Phase 3 trials, we expect investor interest to focus on its potential. We believe that Fosmanogepix can take the antifungal franchise to new heights, given its very attractive profile. It is available orally with a novel mechanism bringing broad-spectrum activity against resistant yeast and moulds. As the Phase 3 programme progresses, we suspect the market will become more enthused about its prospects, noting that our estimates suggest that fosmanogepix could deliver peak sales of $1.2bn.


With a limited label, Zevtera has delivered modest sales in its approved territories so far, but the recent US approval and a broad label for bacteremia, as well as severe skin and community-acquired bacterial pneumonia, are suggestive of a much higher market potential. The recent attraction of antibiotic specialist Innoviva as the US commercial partner gives us confidence that its sales potential should be maximised and further help to offset any loss of demand from a drop in Cresemba sales post Q4 2027.


We have a DCF-derived valuation of CHF 120 per share for Basilea.


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Calvine Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Basilea Pharmaceutica is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.




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