Basilea - The anti-infectives powerhouse

We published a research note today, updating our outlook and forecasts for Basilea. Following a period of significant strategic and financial milestones, management is executing its "Agenda 2030," a roadmap to transition the company beyond its lead asset, Cresemba, and toward becoming a leading global powerhouse in anti-infectives.

Bridging the "Cresemba Gap"

While Cresemba continues to deliver strong sales—marketed in 76 countries and showing early-cycle growth in Japan and China—management is preparing for its loss of exclusivity in the US (September 2027) and Europe (H2 2028). To bridge this revenue gap, Basilea is leveraging three major growth drivers expected to be on the market by 2030:  

• Fosmanogepix: A first-in-class antifungal targeting invasive candidiasis and moulds. With a broader potential label than Cresemba and activity against almost all WHO priority pathogens, its peak sales are forecasted at $1.2 billion.  

  
  

• Zevtera (ceftobiprole): Recently launched in the US, this 5th-generation cephalosporin antibiotic is the only one approved for Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB). Peak sales are projected at $380 million.  

  
  

• Ceftibuten-ledaborbactam: A Phase 3-ready oral combination antibiotic targeting complicated urinary tract infections (cUTI). It addresses growing resistance in Gram-negative bacteria, with peak sales potential estimated at $450 million.  

  
  

A Proven, De-risked Business Model

Basilea’s success is anchored in a business model that identifies and de-risks novel candidates through clinical development and regulatory filing before securing commercial partners. Key advantages include:  

• Non-Dilutive Funding: A critical pillar of Basilea’s strategy is its partnership with BARDA. A multi-year agreement provides up to $320 million in additional funding for pipeline development.

  
  

• Commercial Partnerships: The company maximises value through heavyweight partnerships with industry leaders like Astellas, Pfizer, and Innoviva Specialty Therapeutics (IST).  

  
  

• Real-World Validation: Fosmanogepix has already been used in over 430 patients across 20 countries through Expanded Access Programmes (EAPs), showing a credible 70%+ response rate in the treatment of life-threatening infections resistant to other therapies.  

Despite the upcoming generic competition for Cresemba, Basilea is well-positioned for long-term growth. The company expects to continue generating approximately CHF 600 million in cash flow from its existing commercial products, Cresemba and Zevtera, through 2030. With a rejuvenated late-stage pipeline and a track record of identifying high-value assets, Basilea remains on track to have four commercial-stage assets by 2030.

We have a DCF-derived fair value of CHF120 per share.

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IMPORTANT:

Calvine Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Basilea Pharmaceutica is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.

Link to full disclosures.