Diurnal announced a business and trading update this morning.
With Alkindi roll out taking place during the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been reassuring to see strong growth of over 20% in existing markets of the UK and Germany. Newer launch geographies have not fared so well with modest growth due to the current environment. Delayed timing of bulk deliveries to Alkindi's Nordic partner resulted in an overall muted year over year growth of 4%. In trying to look for leading indicators and a future post-pandemic, we believe that 20%+ growth in the UK and Germany is reassuring. We suspect that growth should be significantly higher in a normal environment where endocrinologists are accessible to the promotional activities supporting Alkindi. Our view is that Alkindi is a straightforward proposition replacing inherently variable crushed/compounded hydrocortisone with a clinically proven preparation - we suspect that revenues have been deferred and not lost. Elsewhere it is important to note that Diurnal has secured Eton as a partner for Alkindi Sprinkle in Canada as well as the important US market.
While Alkindi represents a modest sales opportunity overall for Diurnal, it is the future of Chronocort, providing optimised circadian release of hydrocortisone in patients with the genetic disorder congenital adrenal hyperplasia, that offers a much larger commercial opportunity. Regulatory action from the EMA and EMEA is anticipated in Q1 2021 and if Chronocort is successfully approved it would transform the outlook for Diurnal as it seeks to establish its credentials as a significant participant in the endocrinology field.
IMPORTANT:
Diurnal Group is a client of Calvine Partners and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information contained in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.