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Basilea - Sustainable profitability

Basilea's recent pivot has financially and strategically altered the company's dynamics. Our research note analysis the prospects for the company's anti-infectives business. The consequences of the strategic change have yet to be fully appreciated by investors, we believe.

The anti-infectives franchise has been dominated by Cresemba, Basilea's very successful antifungal. Cresemba's marketing partners are Astellas in the US and Pfizer in Europe. These highly credible partners demonstrate the importance of Cresemba but also the ability of management to attract the right collaborators. This attribute is particularly important in the near term, as Basilea looks for partners for ceftobiprole.

Ceftobiprole now provides another leg of growth for Basilea. Sales have been

modest to date, but the recent positive result from ERADICATE places ceftobiprole in a solid position to be approved for Staph. aureus bacteremia (SAB). In 2019, the TARGET study confirmed efficacy and safety in acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI). Both study results will allow ceftobiprole to differentiate from the competition. Additionally, ceftobiprole's award of QIDP status provided five years of additional market exclusivity. This results in 10 years of exclusivity in the US. We forecast in-market sales approaching $400m for ceftobiprole.

Cresemba's continuing growth, the cut in R&D spending associated with the oncology exit, and a new contribution from ceftobiprole, should ensure Basileas can sustain profitability from next year. In addition, Basilea intends to develop and broaden its anti-infective pipeline, assuring its long-term future.

We calculate a discounted cash flow fair value of CHF 91 per share for Basilea.

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Calvine Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Basilea Pharmaceutica is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information contained in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.



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