We publish a research report today on Basilea examining the recent performance and the outlook as the company enters an important period for its new strategy.
Guidance was raised recently as the performance of Cresemba continues to dominate Basilea's growth. As Cresemba matures, Basilea and its partners will seek to maximise sales potential in new territories such as China and Japan, which represent substantial opportunities at about 25% of the overall global market.
However, it's not all about Cresemba. The forthcoming US approval of ceftobiprole should add significant new revenues to the franchise. Ceftobiprole's award of QIDP status provides 10 years of market exclusivity, and our peak sales forecast approaches $400m. The unmet need in the SAB indication, along with potential in ABSSSI and CABP, we believe that ceftobiprole should be an attractive proposition and remain sanguine regarding the ability of Basilea to deliver a commercial partner before US approval. With a 10-year time horizon and a strong cash position, Basilea should be able to agree a favourable royalty rate, which we anticipate could be north of 20%. The successful attraction of a partner would be another important de-risking event for the company.
Basilea is in a strong financial position with CHF112.9m in cash and investments at the end of H1 2023, which will help it to strengthen its antifungal pipeline as it looks for acquisitions, in-licensing opportunities and in its own delivery of novel pipeline candidates. Our forecasts continue to reflect a period of positive cash flow and sustainable profitability.
We calculate a discounted cash flow fair value of CHF 91 per share for Basilea.
For all our research on Basilea, please use the link here.
Please subscribe here to receive our research, articles and invitations as soon as they are available.
Calvine Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Basilea Pharmaceutica is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.