Given Basilea's newfound focus on its long-established anti-infectives franchise, the continued strong performance of the anti-fungal Cresemba has taken on renewed importance. Historically, sales have outpaced our expectations, particularly in the US through partner Astellas. This performance has been achieved through a combination of Cresemba's differentiated profile, a growing immunosuppressed population and the strength of Astellas' existing anti-fungal franchise.
Outside of the US, Pfizer has commercial rights for Asia Pac, China and Europe (ex Nordics). These geographies, as well as new territories such as Japan, are important sources of future growth for Cresemba. The announcement this morning that sales in the nascent Asia-Pac region have exceeded the threshold triggering the first milestone payment is an important leading indicator of the growth potential in this important region. Clearly, Pfizer as the originator of voriconazole possesses a strong anti-fungal franchise in its own right and we note that all going well, Basilea could receive an additional CHF550m of sales and regulatory milestones (as well as mid-teens royalties) as part of the agreement with Pfizer.
Also in the release this morning, Basilea has provided additional detail on the continued strong performance of Cresemba in its marketed territories with total in-market sales in the 12 months ending December 2021 of $324m - representing highly creditable growth of 28%.
In addition to our enthusiasm for Cresemba's growth potential, particularly outside maturing established markets, it is important to remember that Basilea's anti-infectives franchise could be significantly boosted by upcoming Phase 3 data for its 5th generation cephalosporin ceftobiprole in Staph aureus bloodstream infections, with top-line results expected in the middle of 2022. A successful result here would allow access to the key US market where MRSA rates suggest a large market opportunity and where there are limited effective treatment options. Positive Phase 3 data should also deliver a suitable partner to ensure ceftobiprole's commercial success.
We calculate a discounted cash flow fair value of CHF120 per share for Basilea.
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Basilea Pharmaceutica is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information contained in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.