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Basilea - Cresemba APAC milestone

With all of the activity around the Basilea pipeline, including the potentially transformative addition of the novel antifungal fosmanogepix, it has been easy to overlook the importance of the current anti-fungal franchise. Cresemba's ongoing commercial success has not only taken the company to early profitability but has also enabled it to progress new pipeline opportunities like fosmanogepix and other additions, such as the novel antibacterial tonabacase.

Our forecasts assume that Cresemba will lose exclusivity in the historically key markets of the US and Europe from Q4 2027. We have previously highlighted the importance of the broad geographic spread of Cresemba sales, with availability in over 70 countries, including China and Japan. China is a particularly exciting prospect for Cresemba, given that it represents 20% of the global market for antifungals.

The announcement today of a second milestone from Pfizer for the Asia-Pacific region, including China, is a reminder of Cresemba's sales progress here. This longevity of the Cresemba franchise outside the US and European markets should allow Basilea time to progress the Phase 3 development of fosmanogepix, due to start in mid-year 2024 in candidaemia/invasive candidiasis, followed by invasive mould infections by the year-end.

To be fair, it's not all about Cresemba following the US approval of Zevtera on April 3rd. Our forecasts suggest that peak sales should reach $400m, led by the staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia indication ably supported by the severe skin (ABSSSI) and community-acquired pneumonia indications (CABP). We look forward to Basilea securing an appropriate commercial partner, given the heightened interest around mid-year 2024.

We calculate a discounted cash flow fair value of CHF 105 per share for Basilea.

For all our research and financial forecasts on Basilea, please use the link here.

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Calvine Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Basilea Pharmaceutica is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.



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