H1 2024 saw a strong performance from Basilea’s anti-fungal Cresemba (isavuconazole). Underlying growth was driven by solid royalty income growth of 16.6%, and although milestone payments in H1 may have lagged last year, the company is expecting a better H2 performance. Based on the H1 performance and expectations for continued strength, the company has increased guidance for FY'24. Cresemba is maturing in the US and European markets, but we note that the CHMP has recommended approval for the paediatric population, which will extend exclusivity until Q4 2027. H1 also benefited from receipt of a deferred tax payment, and the company has paid off the remainder of its senior secured loan.
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Looking forward to H2
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Healthy pipeline prospects
A replenishment of the anti-infectives pipeline has characterised the recent past at Basilea. By far, the most important addition has been the novel antifungal fosmanogepix. It is highly selective and offers good oral bioavailability. It appears to have a broad spectrum of activity against various Aspergillus and Candida, including those resistant to the echinocandins. The importance of fosmanogepix as a novel antifungal has been reflected in FDA conferring Fast Track status for various invasive fungal infections, including invasive aspergillosis, candidiasis and mucormycosis. Basilea has confirmed that the Phase 3 programme should start shortly in invasive yeast infections. We believe the Phase 3 programme has already been significantly de-risked, and the clinical profile suggests a peak sales potential of circa $1.2bn.
Following today's increase in sales and profit guidance, our forecasts are under review.
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