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Diurnal Group - The AI and TRT opportunities

Our research report, published today, examines the prospects for Efmody in the $1.9bn European adrenal insufficiency market. We also outline Diurnal’s US opportunity with Efmody and DNL-300 (previously DITEST). Together, these have huge potential for the company, yet appear overlooked by investors.

The European commercial rollout of Alkindi and Efmody is now well underway. Near-term COVID related delays have been a focus, distracting from the more important longer-term outlook. Efmody’s ability to mimic the body’s natural release of cortisol, while improving hormonal balance and using a lower dose of steroid, makes it a compelling treatment option. We believe these attributes will ultimately allow Efmody a meaningful market share.

Although Efmody did not achieve orphan drug status for Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (CAH) in Europe, we believe that the designation could be awarded in the US for CAH, and also in the more significant adrenal insufficiency indication. Orphan drug status, particularly in the US, usually allows premium pricing.

The substantial prospects for DNL-300, Diurnal's testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) also appears to be ignored. Our report looks at the evolution of the $5bn US TRT market, the competitive landscape, and we outline why Diurnal’s DNL-300 could provide a better treatment option as an oral therapy with fewer limitations than competitors. We believe that Diurnal could be in a position to partner DNL-300 as early as next year.

News from Efmody's European AI and US Phase 3 study, together with DNL-300's Phase 2 data, should all provide important catalysts as investors are reminded that there is far more to Diurnal's investment case than Efmody in European CAH.

We have a DCF derived valuation of 241p per share for Diurnal Group.

See our report here.

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Diurnal Group is a client of Calvine Partners, and as such, this publication is not independent and should be considered a marketing communication under FCA Rules. None of the information contained in this publication should be considered as any form of advice.



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